[pessimizer]

As far as I can tell from hanging out on Predictit for years, it's actually pretty shit at predicting things. That some event isn't something that you can gamble on, or that a particular outcome of an event isn't an option until five minutes before it actually happens, doesn't tell you anything.

> If people who hold conspiracy theories put down money and lost

If people who say that the government claim on X is true had to put money behind it, we'd see a massive wealth transfer from smirking status quo guys to little groups of conspiracy theorists. Half the time (like for example the missile strike on that family of saints as we left Afghanistan), the government line has been disproved before the press release even gets out; easy money.

edit: if anything, Predictit acts as a summary of current media coverage/sentiment.

[pfisch]

If you spent time on predictit you would know the conspiracy people aren't rational and lose all their money. They bet in ways that reflect their disjointed understanding of the world.

Not understanding the odds of their bets in general, and getting wrecked on stupid, improbable maga bets about Hillary getting locked up.

Conspiracy people tend to be ultra partisan and believe things with no real evidence beyond they want these things to be true. That doesn't work when they start betting actual money.

There was tons of money to be made long after the 2020 election on whether or not trump would magically become president again.

[aaaaaaaaata]

Out of curiosity, how many "conspiracy people" do you have exposure to/hang out with?

[pfisch]

I have made well over 10k betting against them in absurd bets where the odds of trump becoming president months after the election were estimated by them to be much higher than any rational person would think them to be.

I also spend a decent amount of time looking at qanon websites/forums/reading their insane chatter on twitter.

What do you think the odds of Biden being a body double clone are? Many of them think the odds of this are well over 50%.

[bombcar]

> edit: if anything, Predictit acts as a summary of current media coverage/sentiment.

This is exactly it; you have some small percentage of people "putting their money where their mouth is" but most of it is people trying to second guess and game everyone else (you could reliably make money trading shares on the news cycle, for example).