They could be high volume though... There might be traders who run AI bots to scour Twitter and other news sources and do high frequency trading to earn money on volatility. Just like stocks and shares.
> There might be traders who run AI bots to scour Twitter and other news sources and do high frequency trading to earn money on volatility. Just like stocks and shares.
Yes, thats the point and promise of all prediction markets at any pitiful size.
I'm not seeing how this response addresses the limitation of them. They're not big enough and have had decades to subvert that. Instead its just stupid binary questions for events that frequently are not binary, the questions/markets are unilaterally posted with no analysis of whether it is a binary-enough event. Liquidity is fragmented, there are no market makers helping - from what I can tell - and market makers shouldn't appear with the broken structure of the markets and questions and arbitration of outcomes to begin with. And then, the profit is limited to just the binary option maximums, compared to an actual option with unlimited upside. A trader running an AI bot should just stick with stocks and shares and commodities then.
Prediction markets do not succeed well in monetizing events. They're a broken half measure.
Yes, thats the point and promise of all prediction markets at any pitiful size.
I'm not seeing how this response addresses the limitation of them. They're not big enough and have had decades to subvert that. Instead its just stupid binary questions for events that frequently are not binary, the questions/markets are unilaterally posted with no analysis of whether it is a binary-enough event. Liquidity is fragmented, there are no market makers helping - from what I can tell - and market makers shouldn't appear with the broken structure of the markets and questions and arbitration of outcomes to begin with. And then, the profit is limited to just the binary option maximums, compared to an actual option with unlimited upside. A trader running an AI bot should just stick with stocks and shares and commodities then.
Prediction markets do not succeed well in monetizing events. They're a broken half measure.