> Even if unemployment rates triple, we're still not in an employer's market
Broadly, no. We had 0.6 unemployed per job opening in May [1]. So a ~70% increase in unemployment would have neutralised the market.
We saw a 5% MoM reduction in job openings in June [2]; if that continued into July then the ratio is currently about 0.7. Still tight! But tightening, and with all signs pointing to a neutral market before Halloween. (I said the "window is now closing." Not that it’s closed.)
The JOLTS numbers you are using would indicate a neutral market at 6 unemployed per open job, not at 1 (5% unemployment is considered fully employed). I use these numbers regularly in estimating advertising costs and market demand in my business day to day (I own are recruiting tech company). The reason for optimism is simple: workers are aging out of the market, and young people are starting to work on average 4.9 years later in life - so the worker side is scarce and so scarce that the employer side can shrink with effectively little effect on employment, other than fluctuations in wages.
Today's report from DOL is unsurprising (unemployment went down in July).
Today's report from DOL is unsurprising (unemployment went down in July).