[scyzoryk_xyz]

Germany does not only "have itself to blame" - the gas relationship dates back to the Soviet Union and was supposed to work the other way around. The way Germany saw it, it was the Soviet Union that would become technologically and economically dependent on the West. It was a good plan.

After the unexpected collapse of the Soviet Union the ex-KGB people knew that this was like the one deal that could make a fortune and give them access to power. Germany was be eager to keep up their end of the deal. What Germans didn't understand is that the people on the other side of the table were not the old communist politicians but corrupt gangsters.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that the entire West has only itself to blame in the way it underestimated Putin's strategic prowess and brutality. Influence is a two way road and all that.

I think that you are correct in seeing the similarities to the US-China relationship, but I don't think it's that simple. For one China isn't stupid. They will continue to do what they can to exert power in this relationship. But China is in an advantageous position right now, so they don't need to be invading anyone. What's more, the people in charge in China aren't gangsters, they're a political party with an actual ideology. That makes a big difference because these kinds of people usually aren't very eager to handle wars. What's more likely in the coming years are proxy wars and competing ambitious economic infrastructure development plans. But then again, all plans have a way of backfiring in one way or another, sooner or later so we will just have to wait and see.

[wobbleblob]

It was just an example, I don't have any special insight into the China-Taiwan situation. Maybe the conflict would be over a TV show, or a sports match, who knows. It just occurs to me that if there's a situation where we cut China off, or China cuts us off, we would be in the situation Germany is in now.

China would stand to lose a lot of money in that situation, but our economy would be severely disrupted as well. Russia is showing that for a totalitarian regime, losing a lot of money may not necessarily be a complete show stopper. They could make that choice and decide it's worth it, if they don't have to worry about the polls and are able to shape the narrative their own population gets to see.

[scyzoryk_xyz]

Putin and his circle endorse a culture of violence. They have stayed in power by keeping Russians in a state of terror. If anything they find it much easier to maintain their grip on power in this state of war and conflict, than in a state of peace. These people are actual gangsters - in their worldview they should be waging some sort of brutal war, otherwise who is going to be afraid of them at home?

I think the fears you have assume that the people in power in China have this villainous desire for violence just for it's own sake. But we're talking about the communist party and career politicians here. China has a 10+ year head start with their belt and road initiative. This is where they have an upper hand - it would be stupid to switch to military confrontation.

[rasz]

>the gas relationship dates back to the Soviet Union and was supposed to work the other way around.

You mean like the last time?

German–Soviet Trade and Credit Agreement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German%E2%80%93Soviet_Credit_A...

"expectation of eventual territorial expansion to the Baltic countries, Finland and Poland, with the approval of either the Western powers or Germany" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stalin's_speech_of_19_August_1...

"In the event of a territorial and political rearrangement of the areas belonging to the Polish state the spheres of influence of Germany and the U.S.S.R. shall be bounded approximately by the line of the rivers Narew, Vistula, and San."

"With regard to Southeastern Europe attention is called by the Soviet side to its interest in Bessarabia (Moldova & Ukraine). The German side declares its complete political disinterestedness in these areas."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germany%E2%80%93Soviet_Union_r...