[marcosdumay]

"Intuition" and "judgement" isn't really the best way to think about this.

The entire problem here is that when people say "data-driven", what they actually mean is "model blind". If you make decisions based on a model, nobody will say it's data-driven, it doesn't matter how empirical the model is. Yet, if you rephrase the question as "Do model blind companies win?" the answer is obvious.

Running incoherent experiments testing for each little event you may think of is certainly better than walking at random. But as everybody knows for centuries, you use data to improve your model, and use your model to improve your craft. Jumping over the model part is an incredibly lousy use of data.

[jimmont]

Intuition and judgement come from changing the context of the analysis--the time range/history, the details included. Geopolitical and economic forecasting appear to fit this pattern. The question posed about whether data-driven companies win seems simplistic and formulaic to me personally. Often outcomes can be better fortunes and circumstantial than from over analyzing and using the right approach. Of course both together tend to be where we'd see success looking backward.