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by asdajksah2123 1418 days ago
I mean, the problem wouldn't be any different if growth was 0.1 instead of -0.1, so it wouldn't be a definitional recession. So the problem would still have existed whether the term "recession" applies or not. The emphasis on whether or not we are in a "recession" was always completely misplaced.

The reality is that whether we saw negative growth or not, GDP is clearly contracting.

Which is not a surprise. And not only is it not a surprise, it's the intended effect of the inflation fighting efforts being undertaken by the Fed.

The Fed, or the government, has very little to no control over global supply chain issues, Russia going on a dumb war, and China shutting down massive parts of the country on the whiff of COVID, so the Fed is using the only tool it has available to it.

Which is completely slowing down the economy. Why are we surprised that the economy is slowing down when that's what we're trying to do.

2 comments

Yes, the problems with the economy remain the same whether we attach the label "recession" or not. Yes, job growth is a counter-indicator, an unusual feature of an economy having the problems we are having.

However, there are separate problems with the government scrambling to focus on messaging/spin instead of the actual issues, and the magnifying problem of the whole media complex jumping to toe the party line.

Current statements differ dramatically from previous comments, such as two years ago, when global events also caused a downturn, or even months ago, before the white house started messaging "other factors".

For what it's worth, 2 years ago, NPR stated, 'The standard definition of a recession is "a decline in economic activity that lasts more than a few months.' while noting the covid effects on the economy were broad and deep enough to declare a recession earlier than usual. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/0...

Yes, let's get the economy going, but let's also have the press play their watchdog role, and not just be boosters of the administration.

Job growth on it's own is nothing if the new jobs cannot provide a living (well enough of one), as it will still starve multiple sectors of economy of income and shrink them hard, possibly beyond recovery. And interest rates are already near zero so that cannot be cut either. Taxes could but it will instead ruin already underinvested infrastructure.

Personal monetary liquidity would be a good measure, combined with business liquidity. (Money velocity excluding banks.)

Unfortunate fact is that because prices increased (mostly due to greed in oil/gas sector and housing bubble) and wages did not, it results in USA people facing austerity and cutting spending. And if they have to do it, so do companies, ultimately.

Covid mostly accelerated the trend in a few industries.

By that logic the 1970s recession was not a recession since it was caused by OPEC's precursor.