[tlogan]

In other words, if it looks like a recession and quacks like a recession then it might be a recession.

And yes it much more complicated - especially it also depends on how much outside pressure NEBR has. I think there is a large pressure not to declare recession since we still have a high inflation and feds needs to continue raising rates.

[hotpotamus]

What if it looks like a bug and it sounds like a humming noise?

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/12/opinion/employment-wages-...

[selimthegrim]

That’s not what the Phantom Tollbooth told me.

[zenithd]

the reason for the weirdness is that it doesn’t look like a recession in the labor market. Layoffs have been almost exclusively limited to tech, and within tech pre-profit or highly speculative (cryptoshovels) companies. This is important because in the US economic system labor power drives income drives inflation. (This isn’t true in all countries.)

When the employment outlook changes, and I expect it will, we will be in a traditional recession.

[tlogan]

I was under impression that unemployment is a lagging indicator. The last thing employers want to do is let people go - they will try to cut here, cut there, stop hiring etc.