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by hellohowareu
1415 days ago
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Two annual quarters of negative growth has been the informal (maybe even formal?) definition for a while now. Just because one party wants to change the definition to avoid hubbub to avoid losing political power does not change reality. |
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No, it hasn't.
The informal rule of thumb is two consecutive (not annual) quarters.
But there have been recessions that didn't meet that (most recently, the most recent, two-month COVID recession), and non-recessions (most recently in 1947) that did. The actually definition from NBER is:
“The NBER's traditional definition of a recession is that it is a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months. The committee's view is that while each of the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another.”
https://www.nber.org/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequen...