Strong agree. The need to transition to microservices will sneak up on an organization -- and that's okay. It's surprising how much life you can squeeze out of a monolith.
For the bulk of the smaller companies the monolith is an excellent choice. For a smaller number of them decomposition of that monolith into a few (< 10 and usually < 5) services makes good sense. Typically the kind of project you are working on will suggest nice 'cut here' lines and if it does not then you're going to have to be a bit more creative. You could try going by entities or by processes or by large chunks of the project accessed by different people.
And then there are projects that grow way beyond the point where even that will keep them manageable, in which case microservices may well make sense. But the number of companies faced with challenges at that level is quite small relative to the total and the chances that you find yourself in one of those if you don't have a few hundred co-workers as developer is very small.
And then there are projects that grow way beyond the point where even that will keep them manageable, in which case microservices may well make sense. But the number of companies faced with challenges at that level is quite small relative to the total and the chances that you find yourself in one of those if you don't have a few hundred co-workers as developer is very small.