[bertil]

Atmospheric science isn’t belief: unless we rapidly change energy, transport, and construction practices, most humans will face existential threats in the next five years to ten years one way or another. That part is not for debate.

A lot of activists and governments have started responding (banning ICE cars in 2025, 2030, and 2035). My belief is that most will have increasingly strict rules because they will see increasingly obvious droughts, heatwaves, and hurricanes—that’s the part where I’m less sure about.

There are people and politicians who are delusional, so anything can happen. I expect them to move and be more popular in areas where the consequence will be dire soon.

There are people who protest and see no change. Them, and people who lose everyone they care about in climate-related disasters, will most likely resort to violence: this has already started with people attaching themselves with concrete to a highway or deflating tires of SUVs in London. That group is organized and they don’t feel heard. That much has happened and I can testify that it’s not blaming down. I believe that this will lead to more violence, notably targeted assassinations.