[ajross]

> So, what gives? Where's the solar?

Being installed as fast as the fabs can churn it out? Production capacity isn't infinitely elastic, factories take time to build. Solar is growing very rapidly, for reasons exactly like this, but it's not magic.

[TaylorAlexander]

Also huge tariffs on Asian solar panels cuts demand.

[rossdavidh]

Tariffs are a thing, but there is absolutely no shortage of demand right now, and hasn't been for a while.

[epistasis]

It's a bit more insidious than that, because uncertainty on the part of the importer means that they don't know how much to charge. A tariff action in the future can be assessed on past sales, and when you don't know how much can be assessed, you can't even really hedge or buy and then give rebates later. It's a really fucked up situation.

[ajross]

That may be so, but it remains the case that every wafer that comes out of a solar panel fab gets sold, with a large backlog of demand in every market. And the supply side is responding to that by building out capacity rapidly. Tariffs may or may not be "fucked up" as a matter of principle, but in practice they aren't a barrier.

[epistasis]

They get sold, just not in the US, or specifically, Texas, as the original poster was asking.

This hurts us in the US, quite a bit. And I wouldn't mind, if it meant that there was going to be a more robust US industry for panel production, as that would be fantastic. But the tariffs don't appear to be designed for that, but instead to benefit a few tiny manufacturers that are not expanding.

[ajross]

> They get sold, just not in the US, or specifically, Texas, as the original poster was asking.

I don't think that's correct. Or at least it seems to require evidence. On the whole the US solar market has been extremely robust, with dropping prices and rapid buildout. It's possible that we're somehow lagging the rest of the world somehow, but that seems unlikely.

[TaylorAlexander]

Is every wafer that comes out of Asia being purchased in the USA or have tariffs shifted demand to other countries? How have tariffs affected future purchase orders and new factory build outs? I’m just having a hard time believing they have a negligible effect when the worlds second largest economy adds added cost to solar panel imports.

[Godel_unicode]

They’re pushing purchases to places where there’s already significant renewables and nuclear at the grid level. All uses of solar are not equivalently useful in reducing green house gas emissions.

[TaylorAlexander]

What makes you say there is no shortage of demand? If demand is elastic then lower price would mean more demand. I know that’s just econ101 which is often misleading, but what makes you say otherwise?

[soganess]

I only ever took econ 101, so forgive me if I'm missing a subtle point...

Isn't saying that there exists a *shortage* of demand the same as saying that there is available supply but no one is willing to buy at the current price? Thus, by definition, there cannot be a shortage of demand if all units are being purchased at the current price?

[TaylorAlexander]

On a typical supply and demand curve you can expect that raising the price reduces demand. No one in this thread has actually established that all units are being purchased by the USA. So what you will see are projects in the US that would have gone to solar if it was 30% cheaper but instead go to natural gas or some other source, and those units that would have been purchased get purchased by people in other countries.

But also if demand significantly exceeds supply, that is cause for manufacturers to make more investment in increased production. You’d see major solar projects booking out orders six months in advance for example, and with more demand they would book out one year in advance let’s say. So the thing is that demand is a gradient and it’s not a binary thing of “everything is being purchased”. Raising the price of something will usually price someone out of that purchase.