[RustyConsul]

so what you're saying is they are not only copying the good parts of Tesla (Electrification) but also the bad parts (lying about future production?).

Ford made 30k electric vehicles in 2021, 600k means a growth rate of %1900 in the span of 2 1/2 years (They need to be at the run rate in 2026)?

Battery packs were a problem to Tesla in 2018 and now they've moved onto the bigger problem that no one is talking about.... There isn't enough lithium and nickel production to even make this possible.

That's why Tesla launched its own mining operations in Nevada.

Also, its not like Elon hasn't been screaming about lack of nickel and lithium production since like 2018, just no one seems to be paying attention.

[enragedcacti]

For one, Ford also made 1.7 million total vehicles in 2021 (down from 2.5 million pre COVID) so using their EV only rate doesn't necessarily capture the whole picture.

But mainly, they don't need to actually make 600k EVs in 2024 for it to be true that they have contracts in place to purchase that many batteries if needed.

As for Tesla's mining chops, they bought mining rights in 2020 and as of April 2022 they haven't even broken ground, with Elon saying "price of lithium has gone to insane levels! Tesla might actually have to get into the mining and refining directly at scale, unless costs improve."

I guess while Elon has been screaming about it other companies like BYD and CATL have been the ones actually scaling global production.

[electrondood]

Tesla hasn't ever lied about future production, not once.

If you actually look at their guidance, it's "50% growth on average," and they've consistently hit it.

[enragedcacti]

> In May 2016 Tesla told its suppliers that it intended to double earlier-announced[clarification needed] Model 3 production targets to 100,000 in 2017 and 400,000 in 2018 due to demand

> In October 2016 Tesla said its production timeline was on schedule.[115][116][117] Again in February 2017, Tesla said that vehicle development, supply chain and manufacturing are on track to support volume deliveries of the Model 3 in the second half of 2017.

> As of February 2017, Tesla planned to ramp up production to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week in Q4 2017 and reach 10,000 vehicles per week in 2018.[111]

> By early November 2017, Musk had postponed the target date for manufacturing 5,000 of the vehicles per week from December 2017 to March 2018.

- 100,000/yr in 2017: fail, occurred in 2018

- 400,000/yr in 2018: fail, occurred in 2020/2021

- Volume delivery in in 2H 2017: fail unless you consider 1764 to be volume

- 5000/wk in Q4 2017/March 2018: fail, produced 187/wk, probably first broke 5000/wk Q1 2019 (total quarterly rate was almost 5k/wk)

- 10,000/wk in 2018: fail 4,722/wk Q4 of 2018, probably first broke 10,000/wk at the tail end of Q3 2020 (total quarterly rate was almost 10k/wk) as long as we include model Y production as well

Now I wouldn't call this lying, but its definitely not consistently hitting production goals either

[notatoad]

>Ford made 30k electric vehicles in 2021

source? all i could find was this https://insideevs.com/news/596347/us-ford-ev-sales-june-2022

> H1 production of nearly 34,000 units is below the level from 2021 in the same period.

which is just talking about mach-e production, not other EVs.

[enragedcacti]

I think Mach-e is the only BEV Ford sold in 2021. The E-transit and F-150 Lightning both started sales in 2022. They were selling anumber of PHEVs but many people don't count those as "EV" production.

[notatoad]

presumably they built some in H2 as well though. the 34k number is only the first half of the year.