[eastdakota]

I really thought this was going to be about something else which I am curious about. It seems as a complete layman to Speed Cubing that some ways the cube can be mixed (shuffled? randomized?) will be harder to solve than others. For experts in Speed Cubing, is that accurate? And, if so, among elite speed cubers how much are the records just a matter of the luck of the draw (mix)?

[nsilvestri]

Luck is a pervasive factor in speedcubing. Much of the time it manifests in a way that allows the solver to skip one or more steps of the solve. This is why most events take the average of 5 to rank people (throw out the fastest and slowest solves from a round of 5, average the middle 3 solves), because it's much more representative of a person's skill. But if you're looking to break the world record single solve for 3x3, you need to be pretty lucky on top of being world-class. When taking into account the luckiest situations we've ever seen in cubing comps, only the top 50 or so fastest solvers in the world even have a statistically significant chance at breaking the world record single. I'd feel comfortable placing money on it being someone who's already in the top 15, because there's still a big gap in skill between them and the top 50.

However, the better a solver gets, the more they are able to manifest lucky situations. For example, I do most of my solves oriented around the white side. If there's something lucky in the initial state that would make using the blue side better, I still might opt to not take advantage of it, because the downside of reorienting myself to the blue side is greater than the advantage from that lucky situation. However, someone who has practiced their recognition on all sides and is color-neutral might be able to take advantage of that situation in a way I could not.