[koliber]

I agree with you in your analysis. And yet in the majority of jobs, the level of work that is required is at a level that AI will be able to effectively replace.

The jobs that it will replace will be the entry level jobs. It will replace the jobs where excellence is not required. It will replace the jobs where quantity matters more than quality. These are the jobs that everyone starts at. Some people learn and grow and become experts. And some remain at some lower level for their whole career. This works well when there is enough work to go around. When AI replaces the need for low-end professionals, where will experts learn their trade?

When combustion engines replaced horses in many applications, they did not eliminate all horse handling jobs. There were just significantly fewer horse handling jobs left.