[phkahler]

>> All the "cognitive errors" that we humans make are with respect to predicting the future. But we all know what we find appealing in the present moment.

I like to say that most human problems are a result of the conflict between short and long term goals. This is true at all levels from individuals to small groups, companies, and states. Many, many "failures" can be framed this way. I would say it's not even a problem of predicting the future (thought that is an issue) but of failure to prioritize the future over the present.