| Turchin's political stability indicator predicts this due to rising economic inequality, overproduction of grads with advanced degrees, and exploding public debt [0][1]. However, civil wars usually occur in poorer countries [1][2]. Also the proportion of the world in civil war is 1% and falling exponentially [2]. Finally, Metaculus gives a 5% chance of US civil war before 2031, where a recent July bump is discussed in the comments (Roe, Jan 6) [3]. [0] https://www.nature.com/articles/463608a [1] https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/political-... [2] https://www.nber.org/reporter/2011number3/economic-shocks-we... [3] https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war... Notes:
The Harvard December 2021 youth poll participants gave as 35% chance in their lifetime:
https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/fall-2021-harvard-youth-p... Rasmussen 2018 poll: 33% likely, 10% very likely before 2023
https://www.newsweek.com/second-civil-war-likely-one-third-a... Does anyone have a graph of this probabilty over time from a consistent source like rasmussen?
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/que... |