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by buscoquadnary 1434 days ago
See that's an important thing people don't realize about a new civil war.

In the civil war you had various clearly defined government apparatuses that chose to withdraw themselves from the union to form a new nation state. This time however it isn't a certain group of geographic area it is divided along urban vs rural lines. If a "civil war" were to come again it is much more likely that we'll see something more along the line of the "The Troubles" that happened in Northern Ireland than anything approximating what happened in the 1860s.

5 comments

If it goes down as urban vs rural, it is likely to involve food as a weapon.
Agreed that the ~1860 civil war is not a likely scenario. Here are some other possible scenarios from US history.

https://www.history.com/topics/early-us/shays-rebellion https://www.history.com/topics/early-us/whiskey-rebellion

Were those civil wars? Or did they fall short? There's no simple, clear line. What we can almost certainly expect is terrorism, civil unrest, and moves toward legal autonomy short of actual secession. It will probably be a decade or so before we can tell whether those things (plus the reactions to them) are leading to an actual civil war.

I think you're right, and I'd go one step further to suggest that it's already happening. The path to radicalization for young American males is well known and straightforward and already delivers stochastic terrorism (not isolated events) on behalf of specific interests.
It will be more like Yugoslavia. It will start as you said but full on war between states will be inevitable aftee that
the ideological split seems to pit people in urban vs suburban & rural areas.