[busterarm]

Free trade lives on the back of enormous military spending. Particularly commercial shipping lanes are protected by the power of the US Navy.

The past few years have seem drastically reduced US Naval spending, particularly on the protection of commercial shipping (the shipping and military news sites are almost ready to agree that the US Navy has abandoned this part of the mission entirely). Under Obama's administration we balked at protecting the commercial fishing rights of our allies in the Philippines and it's expected that this kind of policy in reaction to Chinese aggression in SEA will continue.

Then COVID hit us and we might actually see a real unravelling or the last 60 years of global economic policy.

This means that we should probably expect more conflict rather than less.