[rossdavidh]

Seems like "Chance that Elon Musk forces Twitter to divulge really embarrassing info about their business prospects during trial" should be in here. If he gets away with just paying the $1B, it makes a big difference to how much Twitter is worth without him. But, even if this info exists, there is a <100% chance of it coming out in trial; Delaware court may anticipate this strategy and try to stop it.

[elicash]

One of the questions is, "If Elon doesn't buy Twitter, what will the share price be?" If you think embarrassing info is likely, then you could answer with a lower price there. You can also factor whatever odds of him doing well at trial into your answer to other questions.

The formula itself doesn't require a direct answer to your question.

[dragonwriter]

> If he gets away with just paying the $1B

“Musks gets away with paying the ’things fell through on my end but without fault’ fee” (designed mostly for failure of financing despite Musk fulfilling his good faith commitments to make it happen) seems by far the least likely scenario, especially if the case reaches trial (it's just barely plausible as a settlement if it doesn't.)

[Sebb767]

I think this is contained in the question of what the share price will be if Elon gets away. In fact, the math in this test only rounds to straight-forward if you either have a good idea of what the value of the stock will be if the deal falls through or you think is very unlikely.

[roflyear]

No, you just consume too many memes. There is not a real chance of that happening.