[rendang]

Is there any historical precedent for a short term, big dive in the wages of a certain sector based on a 20% decline in demand for that labor? If that were the expected outcome, wouldn't one have predicted that the economy-wide declines in the workforce in the Great Recession would have sunk wages?

[psi75]

I don't know if the numbers match (e.g. 20%) but this is basically what happened in the Great Depression. The advent of industrial nitrogen fixation led to increased agricultural productivity, which caused food prices to decline, which seems like it should be a good thing, but led to the impoverishment of many farmers who could no longer compete.

The Great Recession did shrink wages, although for office workers it mostly produced permanent increases in work demands (Millennial nightmare jobs vs. cushy Boomer jobs which, by the way, won't be backfilled when those who hold them vacate) with wages merely flat.