[DoingIsLearning]

> Any bets on when the majority of software development is automated? My estimate based on the exponential improvement rate of AI on various tests like MMLU and MATH is within 3 years.

An AI solution will always target bang for buck first. So _potentially_ web development or CRUD apps have the greatest probability to be automated.

Nevertheless there is a whole zoo under 'software development'. Bio informatics application, Fast trading software, medical ventilators, hardware debugging with software interfacing with real-world sensors, etc., etc.

Even if your scenario comes true there will be so much 'domain-specific' knowledge that you would still need some sort of 'Business/requirement analyst + Architect' to be able to steer AI agents into any meaningful product.

Maybe the future of Software is not in the writing but in the Designing for the specific domain. Which come to think of it is not that bad of a job and probably not that far off from what a Principal/Staff Engineer is doing nowadays.