[adam_arthur]

I am expecting a big earnings recession, but it may be next quarter, rather than this one.

It's taken a lot longer to play out than I expected, but you can get a decent sense of consumer spending via revolving credit e.g. credit cards.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCLACBW027SBOG

You can see how rapidly this has been rising since the covid deleveraging. But we're now back to trend and rates/real prices will be higher.

As long as consumers continue to lever up aggressively, earnings will be somewhat supported. But we're about to run into a brick wall with maxed out credit

[htormey]

Agreed re this taking longer to play out than expected. My frame of reference is 2008, which felt like it happened really fast.

This seems to be more of slow role out in stages. I could totally see this taking another quarter or two before it hits earnings in a big way.

[BadCookie]

Do you have any idea why the consumer credit total in this chart doubled practically overnight in March 2010? It looks like a definition change, but I couldn’t find an explanation.