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by lamontcg
1441 days ago
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We can't vaccinate our way out of this virus. Even without the issues of compliance, eradication is likely impossible with a respiratory virus like this. Even if you have a pan coronavirus nasal vaccine the NAbs will wane and people will get infected again. It doesn't matter if we use more mRNAs than just spike for more targets or anything else. It'll mutate, NAbs will wane, people won't get vaccinated and the virus will persist. People are looking for a silver bullet which will confer the naive ideal of "perfect immunity" against this virus which just doesn't exist. The vaccines we have though are great, particularly against severe disease and death. But it won't get much better than this. The disease burden is currently high compared to common colds because the virus is still novel and our immune system responses aren't 100% fully formed and tested. Once everyone has been exposed to the antigen a half dozen times and the virus is forced to mutate off of its naive optimum then the disease burden will drop even further. Then we just have another human common cold coronavirus. Nobody is freaking out over HCoV-NL63, HCoV-229E or HCoV-OC43. |
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This is presented as a fact/certainty, however, I'd like to caution that it is still unclear whether multiple reinfections will add up to lasting damage (unlike the common cold), see e.g. [1].
That said, I agree with you that it'll be hard to eradicate this virus given how quickly it mutates (I'm just not as certain of the consequences).
[1] https://erictopol.substack.com/p/a-reinfection-red-flag