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To address the concept of UBI up front, I'm not a fan of it. I could get into the philosophical arguments of it but tugging heartstrings is one of the first signs of a failed argument (name calling is a close second). However, I will also say that I don't see any other way to deal with the kind of job disruption we're going to see as a nation over the next 15 years with AI tech progressing. Anyone who wants to argue against roughly 40% of the country getting a UBI for 5 years or so along with new job field training hasn't thought through what roughly 150 million armed and broke Americans can lead to. FY2019 the US saw a tax revenue of $3.46 trillion in total tax monies, with right at half of that coming from income taxes at $1.72 trillion. Meaning, taxation for UBI would be a tax increase of $350 billion on top of current income taxes if you wanted to pay every single American a $1k monthly UBI. Last census showed 20% (ok, actually 19% but rounding up to keep numbers simple) of Americans do not pay payroll taxes (this is why I did not count FICA taxes with the $1.72 income tax number, because when I say 20% I mean 20%. So I excluded people who pay FICA, have an SSI exemption, income to low, ect)) so that means the base population numbre of 350 million I used now is 280 million total Americans (and we both know that a quick glance at the current U6 number on an unemployment chart will crush the pipe dream of 280 million Americans having jobs and paying federal taxes. So now we're talking some serious tax increases. And I think a lot of people might be shocked at how many people with two UBI checks coming into their household would consider that retirement money....adding even more tax burden to the rest. I know some people like to blame Trump, some Biden, and some point to Obama....but we've been trying the free money experiment since the Great Recession with those first moves Bush made and every President has followed since. The Federal Reserve slammed rates to zero and kept them there because there has never been an economic recovery. Which is why the Fed has also artificially supported several private markets (don't even get me started on the Federal Reserve's trading desk when they want to buy a crap ton of stocks or bonds to stop a market slide when it starts getting around +1,000 or more.), and all it's achieved is giving us terrifyingly large asset bubbles and even more scary debt bubbles. Without getting off into a novel on the topic, quite simply, the answer is no....we do not have the resources available to hand out UBI. I've heard some advocate the logic of it's fine since we can print as much money as we need. People who say this simply don't understand how the US economy and the Federal Reserve work as for every single USD that is created...there is also debt created via the interest owed on that one dollar. This is why anyone who says they can pay the debt off or not add to it is either lying or selling something. The literal only way to address the US's debt (both public as well as Unfunded Liabilities....which total $170 trillion in debt just counting Medicare and SSI) is liquidation. Sure, we could "tell" the Fed no more interest and to waive all interest owed it....but that would make the USD toilet paper globally. And if that ever happens that the world views the dollar as useless then we'll see a crash on the scale of Mad Max stuff like doom prophets on youtube always swear is happening in 5 hours. If someone is single and needs help, you can't beat the military (I joined the Army for this precise reason) for food, clothing, shelter, income, insurance, ect. That's where I got a lot of my college education for free, but if single there are way to many grants to not be able to do a few night classes a week since there are no wife or kids at home waiting on you. If you have a family as I did (wife and two toddlers) it was even better as the Army gave us free housing and extra money for groceries and my family enjoyed my benefits. As far as the intellect argument....we live in the age of the autodidact thanks to the internet. Anyone that can't be bothered to take half an hour a day to educate themselves doesn't want or need help. I left my job in automation right after the recession and since all that had happened I decided to learn how the economy works, how the dollar works, what the Fed is and how it works, how it applies geo-politically, ect. It's why nowadays I sit at home in my boxers and trade the markets while also having a second portfolio that is more passive and functions best if left alone. |
The argument that people would stop working and being productive if not under the threat of starvation has been debunked over and over and over again. The people telling you the threat of death is necessary for the economy are millionaires hired by billionaires to keep the status quo going.
Most of the "free money" America gives out is to the extraordinarily wealthy. Billionaires getting tax breaks, paying virtually nothing or even getting their money back. This is while children are going hungry, and millions are suffering from simple and treatable conditions. You speak candidly of people being forced to join the military for a chance at a better life, but it doesn't seem to all quite connect and join up in your worldview.
There are very few countries where is it seen as normal to have to join the military for "food, clothing, shelter, income, insurance, etc". And no other country's military is nearly so "active" and well funded. It cannot be overstated just how stunning the difference is between how the US perceives our military's actions, and how the rest of the world sees them. The reason for that - once again - is that millionaires are hired by billionaires to create that false narrative.
> ...we live in the age of the autodidact thanks to the internet. Anyone that can't be bothered to take half an hour a day to educate themselves doesn't want or need help. I left my job in automation right after the recession and since all that had happened I decided to learn how the economy works, how the dollar works, what the Fed is and how it works, how it applies geo-politically, ect. It's why nowadays I sit at home in my boxers and trade the markets while also having a second portfolio that is more passive and functions best if left alone.
Is this a blunt parody of privilege? Am I getting Poe's Law-ed? I'm glad you're alright, Jack, but telling society to just join the Army and use the internet to beat the market in their boxers strikes me as staggeringly callous and disconnected. Please, please tell me that was humor.