[david927]

I give Facebook five years before it shares the fate of MySpace. I give Google ten years before it becomes a Yahoo -- still around but not a leading light, by any means.

I think we will absolutely be rolling out clean energy in ten years, with 70% of new cars as fully electric cars at that time.

The climate will continue to be changing dramatically. That's a large car without brakes; nothing is going to stop it. We'll have cut CO2 emissions significantly but the main damage will have already been done. I think it will be the main focus of concern for people.

I think we'll see the Semantic Web come into full bloom and most will view the web in terms of it, rather than the text we know today.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was at some point a large war involving multiple countries, stopping just short of a world war. Martial law in the United States, for example.

Huge changes in the next ten years, simply huge. But despite the negatives, it's a great time to be alive.

[paulnelligan]

"I give Facebook five years before it shares the fate of MySpace. I give Google ten years before it becomes a Yahoo -- still around but not a leading light, by any means."

Personally, I find that very hard to envision.

[waterlesscloud]

I think it's more likely Google becomes a Yahoo (or even more likely, a Microsoft) than Facebook becomes Myspace.

Facebook has avoided many of the things that made the fall of Myspace possible, and their network is much larger, including people who came to social networks late and are very unlikely to ever care about changing to another one.

Google, on the other hand, already shows the early signs of Microsoftism. Taking themselves too seriously, trying everything and excelling at nothing, massive employee growth (which has to lower average quality). 5 years from now, they'll be well into a downward slide.

[david927]

FB's network is much larger, including people who came to social networks late and are very unlikely to ever care about changing to another one

Exactly. And that's why I'm right. Facebook isn't a generic solution, like email. People don't use it for business, for example. It also has a strong branding and part of that is in terms of "coolness". Now it is something that your mom uses. How long do you think the early adopters -- students and teenagers -- are going to put up with that before it gets organically rebranded as uncool? And, as we know from the Diffusion of Innovation, if the head of the snake dies (the early adopters go away or go somewhere else en masse), it's only a matter of time before it, well, becomes MySpace.

Google ... trying everything and excelling at nothing

That's it. Hot startups are like child stars. If all the idolization seeps into their ego, you can guarantee they'll be shooting porn by 20. Why? Because they think they're entitled to what they have, but what they have will change. And their sense of entitlement means they won't take the change seriously and even as they watch it go away, they'll just assume it will come back. Google has a serious case of the egos. It doesn't matter how many people love them now -- they don't stand a chance.