[dispat0r]

Germany will just no longer have the fourth-largest economy in the world. There is no way to substitute gas short term, long term you can replace it with electric alternatives. But these electric alternatives do not run on a grid with just wind and solar. I live in Germany and I have no hope. Our heating bills for the next winter can already exceed $900 per month for a 4-person household, electric costs also at $200 per month. The whole economy will just collapse.

[ben_w]

I expect Germany to import the smallest amount of natural gas that the government can be confident will prevent economic collapse.

I also expect this quantity to be much lower than it would've been last year, as I also expect significant effort to be put into both improvements (e.g. home insulation) and alternatives (e.g. renewables).

[dispat0r]

Germany doesn't have the infrastructure to import from other sources. The LNG terminals don't work yet, and the capacity is too low and LNG is much more expansive than the Russian pipeline gas. And even if we have the LNG infrastructure, we have to buy a big chunk of the world market, which screws poorer countries. Our home insulation is already pretty good and renovating all old buildings is expansive, and we don't have enough craftsman to do that. Renewables brought us this mess the plan was to use natural gas, this is now over. We need to go back to coal and build new nuclear plants to phase out coal, but this will never happen under the current government, at least until the winter.

[ben_w]

Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

If we can insulate 1% of the worst houses and apartments, that's still an improvement, in that less money goes to Russia.

If we can get 1% of our needs from LNG terminals built in the next 6 months, that's still 1% less fuel trade with Russia.

If fuel oils, benzine, diesel, biofuels, and new wind turbines combined can substitute 1% of Russian natural gas, that's 1% less money going to Russia.

The USA put speed limits on their highways in response to a fuel crisis, if we do that with the Autobahns and it only reduces Russian imports by 1%, that's 1% less of our money that ends up funding the Russian government.

While coal is much worse for the climate than natural gas, a short-term political need to deal with a warmongering fuel supplier can override that, so burn it and starve the Russian government.

Etc.

It adds up. Even if Germany sill buys 90% as much Russian natural gas in December 2022 as in December 2021, that's still better than buying 100%.

I'm relaxed about nuclear power, but unfortunately this is not the majority position and hoping for them here is wishful thinking. Also, nuclear just can't be constructed fast enough to be relevant for this winter, not even with a major increase in their political acceptability.