[Nursie]

I'm not.

Cryptocurrency has explicitly and repeatedly been touted as un or anti-correlated to the wider financial ecosystem, fiat currencies and the stock market, and has been loudly, noisily and never-endingly sold as a great hedge against these things, absent any evidence.

The evidence is in now, and those theories are a bust.

[trixie_]

There are many theories about everything. Sorry the ones you bought into didn’t work out. Most of us aren’t surprised that when the dollar is manipulated that other asset classes’ dollar values change as well.

[Nursie]

I didn't buy into them, nor was I the slightest bit surprised. The point is that like most theories about cryptocurrency value that originate with cryptocurrency proponents, they have been shown to be wrong when exposed to the real world.

To turn it back on you - I'm not sure why you're upset that a central bank currency is being manipulated, that's entirely the point of such a system, to allow manipulation by steering committees to attempt to smooth out the bumps and judders in the economy and keep things on an even keel. It's a good thing!

[aaaaaaaaata]

I had a comment written, I'll leave it at this: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10966165/Jerome-Pow...

Your faith is misplaced.

[Nursie]

When I claim that anyone has perfect knowledge… I still won’t be interested in what it says in a Daily Mail article.

[aaaaaaaaata]

DailyMail is like Wikipedia — a great first spot to spin off and read a dozen sources you probably haven't seen yet. All linked and just waiting for you.

I wish you luck on your reading-less journey through this topic.

[slater]

Yeah, no. Daily Mail is about one step, maaaybe generously two steps above the National Enquirer.

[Nursie]

No, it's a shitty rag not even fit to wipe your posterior with.

[trixie_]

I'm not upset either. The dollar is a stable because of manipulation though unfortunately over the long term it does lose value. The cost of stability. Crypto on the other hand I do expect to go up over the long term while being short term volatile. Let's check back in five years and see if that's the case.

[Nursie]

We can do that, and I'm not sure I would like to make a prediction about the price of any particular cryptocurrency asset that far ahead.

But I'm also not sure what that has to do with my posts further up, which are saying that another claim about cryptocurrency, that it's a hedge against the stock market and the wider financial system, is wrong. If you're trying to say "Well it might work out, longer term!" then I'm not really sure it qualifies as hedge at that point, you're just talking about another investment which it turns out is quite strongly correlated to the general financial markets.

[aaaaaaaaata]

> that it's a hedge against the stock market

It can be, but still be correlated right up until that moment.

[Nursie]

Except it's not, it's literally just shown that when the stock market takes a dive and times generally get tighter, it crashes worse than everything else.

The claim is a bust.

[FabHK]

The notion that the volatility of crypto currencies are due to the value of the dollar being manipulated (rather than the "value" of the crypto) is absurd. You can trivially compare the value of a dollar to a basket of currencies (e.g. the U.S. Dollar Index/Dixie), or a basket of goods (like the consumer price index), and it is fairly stable, and definitely not as wild as the gyrations of crypto prices.

[trixie_]

Just as companies like Celsius offered a high interest rate on Bitcoin, and lots of people moved their money into Bitcoin; the government can do the same by changing interest rates which incentivize people to move their money to/from dollars.