[dahdum]

> I don't see legacy auto being capable of refactoring their cars, manufacturing processes and business models fast enough to survive.

My take is the opposite. Incumbents already have like 90% of what Tesla had or chose to build from scratch. EV's are not complicated at all compared to ICE, and incumbents have been refining their manufacturing process for decades in a brutally competitive industry.

Unless Tesla can somehow get an effective monopoly on battery tech or FSD, which they are not, they're going to be just another car company. Nothing they can deliver can't be done by others.

Personally I think it's way more likely Waymo or Apple deliver FSD first, with broad industry partnerships wiping out Tesla's advantage.

[coenhyde]

I agree that the EV tech stack is easy. EV retro fits illustrate how simple EV's are. But that's not the part that matters. What matters is if you can make an outsized profit building and selling EV's. Legacy auto can't, Tesla can. Tesla is very vertically integrated so they can eek out extra margin that others can't. They also aren't inhibited by the existing dealer / service / financing model. So what I'm saying is if legacy auto wants to compete with Tesla, they have to refactor their entire business. And i don't see that happening. It will be interesting to see who is right in 5-10 years.

[steveBK123]

I was with you in my 4 years of Tesla ownership but having researched & sampled the competition I just can't agree anymore.

Tesla has gone down a cul-de-sac with FSD to the point that there's plenty of equally competent highway "self driving", which is all 99% of people actually need/want.

Further Tesla is extremely focussed on SKU minimization .. very few models with very few options. Tesla only has 4 cars which are kind of like 3.5 given how similar 3/Y are. People want a variety of sizes/shapes/luxury levels, and to have some options within a model.

At the Model 3&Y end of price curve, they face serious competition from Ford, Hyundai, Kia and VW.

At the S&X end, they are actually in worse shape because the Germans will sell you a wide range of cars, which actually feel luxurious inside for the ~$100K price you are paying... with lots of fun colors and options packages. The interior of a $50K Model 3 and $130K Model S are more similar than dissimilar.

You can get also get worse EVs for cheaper than the lowest Tesla starting price... not every car can start at $50K.

I mean it's kind of crazy the Tesla Model Y has crept up to $68k starting price. There are a lot of crossover/hatchback EVs in the $40-60k range especially with tax credits included...

[coenhyde]

Tesla is focused on unit production, SKU minimization is a side effect. They are supply contained. Why make additional models of cars if you can sell more of the ones you already make instead? There's more than enough demand to support their limited SKU's, high price points and current production; for the moment. When Tesla manages to cap out on their demand, they can lower prices and introduce more models. But when that happens they will be at a scale where their economies of scale and vertical integration allows them to still make a large profit while their competition breaks even or worse.

[steveBK123]

Maybe? But cars are like fashion. Demand can change more rapidly than Tesla can design, announce, and scale production of new models to fill all the gaps in their model line.

Once competitors can ship in higher volumes at the Model 3/Y price points then they can readjust pricing quickly of course.

Look at the Model S right now, if you want a Plaid you can essentially have it RIGHT NOW, there's even a few inventory cars popping up periodically. For the Model 3/Y, if you go with performance model, again you can have it in weeks like in normal times. To me this looks like demand at the high end is cooling off for Tesla.