[s1artibartfast]

I'm not saying there is no line to get Russia out of Ukraine. Anything is possible.

I am saying that it unlikely to be reached and my personal opinion is we are moving further from it not closer.

I'm also saying that Russia is not making decisions as if it will be crossed. They are doing the exact opposite, making decisions assuming that they will not be forced out and will not get the reserves back.

I don't think they would realistically get the foreign reserves back even if they left, so that isn't much of an incentive.

The US and EU have to much politically at stake to hand them back, even if they leave. It would be seen as letting Russia get away without consequences for the invasion.

Time will prove one of us wrong. In 5 years Russia will either be occupying Eastern Ukraine or not. They will either have control of the foreign reserves back or not.