[frgtpsswrdlame]

There's more than just monetary policy and war. Monetary policy would imply demand for gas is up, driving prices up. But demand for gas is still lower now than it was pre-covid.

Oil is on its way out the door. Oil companies all have projections that show demand for oil increasing in the short term and decreasing in the long term. The list of their options to (1) increase their profits by (2) increasing the supply of oil are all investments that only pay off in the long term. Hence, even as prices rise in the short term, they are making calculations off the long term and finding it not very profitable to increase supply. Simple economic theories of corporate response to supply and demand don't work nearly as well with this long-term, short-term incentive difference.