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by fengb 1434 days ago
2010: All this pump is fake. Sell!

2014: All this pump is fake. Sell!

2018: All this pump is fake. Sell!

2022: All this pump is fake. Sell! See, you can time the market.

1 comments

The funny thing is, it was fake--caused by 20 years of extremely cheap debt-money.
I would agree, there are fundamental reasons that would suggest different outcomes for investments, and that's sort of an illustration of why you can't time the market. Even if you know the truth, and you believe that the market will always eventually reflect the truth, it's difficult to know how long that correction will take.
“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
We didn't lose twenty or even ten years of gains though; only about one year. So the Cassandras were wrong nine out of ten times.