| Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output. -- Milton Friedman > I doubt this is monetary inflation. It's price inflation due to a supply crunch brought on by the pandemic shutdowns Take a look at M2 money supply [0]. Pumping huge amounts of fiscal stimulus into the global economy caused this. Inflation has been driven by poor policy decisions. > Then throw in other factors like housing undersupply in developed countries There has been a housing stock shortage for over a decade, that's not new, so it's hard to argue that's a proximate cause [1]. > continuing depletion of "easy" oil There's plenty of oil available [2]. New technology (hydraulic fracturing, horizontal drilling, etc.) allows for accessing reserves that were too expensive previously. There has been structural underinvestment in O&G thanks to misguided green/ESG policy. > Chinese threats against Taiwan How does this drive inflation? If anything, China has reduced inflationary pressures by decimating economic activity with Covid lockdowns. > Gold tends to be (but is not guaranteed to be) a hedge against monetary inflation Gold has been a great hedge against inflation in the long run. When measured in gold, a soldier today earns a similar salary to a Roman soldier 2000 years ago [3]. However, gold is not a good hedge against inflation in the short term. When inflation goes up, interest rates go up. When interest rates go up, the opportunity cost of owning gold increases. It should be noted that interest rates have steadily declined throughout history. [0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2REAL [1] https://smile.amazon.com/Shut-Out-Shortage-Recession-Univers... [2] https://bettermeetsreality.com/how-much-oil-is-left-in-the-w... [3] https://www.mining.com/what-a-roman-centurions-pay-says-abou... |