[treis]

>I saw plenty of people saying before the invasion that it would be irrational for Putin to invade and therefore he wouldn't.

I didn't, but nevertheless there's a difference between "it's irrational because the cost is higher than the benefit" and "it's irrational because there's no benefit to getting your ass kicked".

[ben_w]

Isn’t one of those a subset of the other? Both look kinda like they’re applicable to Russia right now, but I’m aware my sense of scale may be wrong for stuff like this.