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by mactitan 1432 days ago
This article covers major issues:

Limits to Green Energy Are Becoming Much Clearer: https://ourfiniteworld.com/2022/02/09/limits-to-green-energy...

[1] It is becoming clear that intermittent wind and solar cannot be counted on to provide adequate electricity supply when the electrical distribution system needs them.

2] Adequate storage for electricity is not feasible in any reasonable timeframe. This means that if cold countries are not to “freeze in the dark” during winter, fossil fuel backup is likely to be needed for many years in the future.

3) After many years of subsidies and mandates, today’s green electricity is only a tiny fraction of what is needed to keep our current economy operating.

[4] Even as a percentage of electricity, rather than total energy, renewables still comprised a relatively small share in 2020.

5] Most modelers have not understood that reserve to production ratios greatly overstate the amount of fossil fuels and other minerals that the economy will be able to extract.

6] The world economy seems already to be reaching limits on the extraction of coal and natural gas to be used for balancing electricity provided by intermittent renewables.

7] Conclusion. Modelers and leaders everywhere have had a basic misunderstanding of how the economy operates and what limits we are up against. This misunderstanding has allowed scientists to put together models that are far from the situation we are actually facing.

2 comments

There are MANY mistakes here.

Offshore wind especially in the north sea is barely tapped and powerful all year round. There are many other constant green energy options such as hydro, waves, currents, geothermal, etc. The value is in including a wide variety of all and over a large enough territory so surplus in one area can compensate a shortfall in another.

Grid energy storage includes MANY creative and easy to implement ideas. Tesla style batteries are the most mundane. The cost and setup of grid scale storage is much lower than the alternative.

Nobody is refuting that there are not alternatives & solutions. Each of the pts are supported. It’s the shear scale of replacing conventional energy & we haven’t really dented its use.

This is from today’s James Kunstler blog:

The solar electric I installed on the house nine years ago is down. It’s supposed to feed that monster called the grid. Since April, I noticed that the electric bill is creeping up way beyond the usual seventeen bucks that the electric company charges home solar producers for the privilege of feeding their system — which, let’s face it, has a downside for them because the intermittency of so-called alt-energy disorders their operations.

Sure. But the limits are very far off, the main problem is replacing 150+ years of energy infrastructure. Green needs large buildups a solar roof is a "nice hobby" but we need massive scale. To get to this point we need a lot of government investment like never before.

It is doable though and not as out of reach (from a major percentage) as some people would say. Green is already far more affordable than any alternative including fossil and nuclear. That was a very hard part. Getting it to scale is the second challenge and it's moving, right now funds and supply chain issues are the blockers.

Thanks for this article, it’s refreshing to read an article that is pragmatic about the topic.