[lettergram]

It’s actually a bit different. It’s more expected value:

Cost of settling is X

Potential cost of losing is Y

Risk of losing is Z

If X < Z*Y, then you settle; often a trial continues until Z and Y are sufficiently known, then X is offered to the opposing party.

In this case, Y could have bankrupted the company (hundreds of billions in real damages). So, even if risk (Z) was 10-20%, $10B is a deal.