If your company so as mentions layoffs, even (especially?) if they deny it, they are coming. Just like a Pip, if it gets mentioned, start looking for another job
I don't think one signal alone is sufficient to make that determination. Lots of companies try to comfort employees during downturns.
In my experience before you see mass layoffs you'll also see some of the following: hiring freezes, benefit cutbacks, travel bans, infrastructure cost cutting, office closures, revamps to employee evaluation processes, etc. Without at least some other factors I wouldn't assume a company is considering layoffs just because they use the word.
Bailing early sacrifices some benefits in exchange for you deciding the timing.
If you are laid off in much of the US anyway, you are eligible for unemployment in case that's needed. That might help someone with less assets in a protracted dry spell.
Also very common, you give up severance pay if you quit. If you can afford some timing risk, IMO it's best to have your scope up and be looking just in case, then wait until pushed. The severance will basically be a bonus if you're rehired quickly since you should have some leads lined up.
Yep, rode out a layoff with that plan in mind recently. Took a very long vacation and still had a month or two of double pay - April was the first 5 paycheck month of my life, so that was cool. But on the whole it's pretty stressful waiting to get laid off, can't say I'd recommend it, though in my case it worked out pretty well.
That doesn't make much sense to me. If there is market turmoil, are you saying the best strategy for a company is to not communicate anything no matter the company and industry?
The best strategy is to talk through the business performance, and the business goals. When businesses miss goals, or they clam up on the underlying fundamentals - it generally means that trouble is brewing. Sometimes this is done on "tenuous" justifications, I once worked at a startup that insisted that employees could not have access to revenue data or other business metrics if they were to go public. Of course, the reality was that the business wanted to hide how deeply underwater everyones options were - as well as how far off the growth projections were from business reality.
What if the company doesn't bring it up, but says there won't be a layoff in response to a direct question (at an employee town hall, for example)? It seems like that's how a lot of these rumors get started.
So you're saying, in the scenario where someone asks directly "will this company lay anyone off," you'd rather the company deflect the question and not answer it than just say "no?"
I really can't imagine why anyone would think that's a better look. If someone dodges a question, it's safe to assume that the truthful answer would look bad for them. That's WHY people dodge questions.
As much as I want to agree with you, and as much as I usually go by that rule myself... The place I work at now said, in March 2020, that they weren't going to do any layoffs. And, they haven't. And are now making more money than they were in 2019, and actively looking for more people, so, I doubt any are coming.
There have been times in my life when that advice was 100% true, but, not every time.
Counterpoint: depending on the company stay around if you’re somewhat risk tolerant. It might not be in a death spiral and you’ll learn a lot of the company needs to hard pivot in new directions. You’ll have a bigger say in the smaller company trying to find that direction.
When the senior management all suddenly disappear at once, because they're under gag order and not allowed to talk about the company's future with anyone, that's a sign of things to come.
In my experience before you see mass layoffs you'll also see some of the following: hiring freezes, benefit cutbacks, travel bans, infrastructure cost cutting, office closures, revamps to employee evaluation processes, etc. Without at least some other factors I wouldn't assume a company is considering layoffs just because they use the word.