The “breakage” is happening. It’s just in the form of crappy solutions like CGNAT and DS-lite to work around the shortage rather than the internet just not working at all.
also, ipv4 address space is becoming intrenched by large players because address pricing is becoming very expensive.
Want to start a new service and require global connectivity, good luck winning IPv4 auctions because AWS is buying up all address space, even if they are not using it.
They buy it up because they expect it will be needed by their customers, among whom is the US federal government. However, the world did not end, addresses can still be had, and things are still functional. I would say that the doom saying press was alarmist.
Want to start a new service and require global connectivity, good luck winning IPv4 auctions because AWS is buying up all address space, even if they are not using it.