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by Sesse__
1454 days ago
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Shannon's estimate was based on very primitive methods; by generating random positions and using fairly advanced methods to see whether they are legal or not (ie., can you construct a proof game for it, or prove that it could never happen), you will get much closer. A group of people have been working on this, and their current best estimate is (4.822 +- 0.028) * 10^44, or a bit over 148 bits. (Amazingly enough, Shannon wasn't all that far off on this account! His estimated number of legal games seems much more dodgy, though.) http://talkchess.com/forum3/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=77685&sid=e3... Practically speaking, https://github.com/tromp/ChessPositionRanking gives a number between 0 and approx. 8.7 * 10^45 for any legal position, so it's only a couple of bits away from optimality. |
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That would be 149 bits!