[tadfisher]

I disagree. The constraint is the prisoner's dilemma that is the oil extraction industry, where the incentives are currently aligned such that extracting less oil maintains steady profits for all players as demand recovers from 2020. If you recall, oversupply combined with demand reduction caused oil futures to go negative in that year. The industry does not want to relive that experience in 2022.

Politicians (and policies) don't really have much sway over oil prices compared to market forces. For example, the federal gas tax is 18 cents a gallon, a pretty small fraction of the current price.