[mattnewton]

Right, I’ve learned the hard way that if my models are that out of line with the market then my models are wrong in ways that will cost me a lot of money. Satoshi himself could reveal to me the future price of bitcoin is intrinsically around $1,000 USD as a little understood fact of how the blockchain works, and I still wouldn’t trade on that today with prices where they are. Even a instantaneous divine revelation from God to all mankind would take a long time to propagate through the markets and you would lose your money in the meantime.

[benreesman]

I don’t know whether or not you’ve studied economics or financial mathematics, but you’ve concisely and concretely identified something called the Weak-Form Efficient Market Hypothesis.

Maybe you already knew that, but if not you’re a natural.