[dahart]

> the odds of a venture backed startup shutting down at any point over the next ten years is something like 30%.

Where is this number from? Googling, I see numbers like 75% of venture backed startups failing [1] and 90% of all startups failing, most of that within the first year. The suggestion that 70% of venture startups live for at least a decade smells unlikely.

[1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10000872396390443720204578004...

> from a risk perspective, it's literally over 100x more risky to use a software product made by a venture backed company than one from a solo founder.

Yeah, no this is not even close to true (because, as many others have pointed out, death is not the primary risk to a solo founder, funding & motivation are). Unfunded startups fail at a higher rate than venture backed, from what I can find. YC funds solo founders, but advises trying to find a co-founder because the risks are higher. https://www.ycombinator.com/library/7P-does-yc-fund-solo-fou...

[tedmiston]

Yeah, the 30% number is way off. The vast majority of startups die off. That percentage is likely 90–95%, maybe even 99%.

If you include acquihired teams / sunsetted products, that number is even higher.