[Barrera]

> But this time really is different. Driven by war and pandemic, a new macroeconomic paradigm is forming. High inflation is back after a 30-year absence, and with it, much tighter monetary policy. Interest rates are rising, and central banks around the world are burning money. The era of plentiful dollars is coming to an end. And that will mean persistently lower prices for cryptocurrencies.

This seems to be the gist of the author's case. What the piece fails to consider is the possibility that "much tighter monetary policy" is transitory. Really, the author goes on as if we're 800 basis points into the Fed hiking cycle when it's just barely lifted off. And QT, although it is supposed to have started, has done very, very little to turn the Fed's balance sheet around. Those MBS are still safely in the lockbox.

How exactly does this author think the Fed will react to another housing market crash? One that stretches out to an election year? One like 2008 that permeates the entire economy?

It's gonna be bazookas and "whatever it takes" as far as the eye can see. It won't matter what the CPI is reading.

[qqqwerty]

How are you so sure? The current iteration of this Fed has never dealt with inflation before. So we don't really know whether they will prioritize tackling inflation or unemployment. I cynically think that high inflation impacts rich people more than high unemployment, so would bet on the Fed going after inflation.

[netheril96]

No one is sure, including the author of the article.

[kareemsabri]

So you agree with the author that the price of BTC is propped up by low rates and excess dollars seeking yield wherever they can find it, you just disagree that that environment will end?