I am willing to bet up to $1 USD that AI will be able to generate a 5,000 word essay on an arbitrary but common topic which is indistinguishable from human writing to a panel of 5 normal humans, all by Jun 28, 2032.
What are ‘normal humans’? If I take 5 humans at random from a non university town, I am willing to bet up to $1 they cannot distinguish this now when generated with gpt3.
I struggled with that phrasing because it wasn't immediately obvious to me how to describe a class of people capable of judging the problem but who wouldn't be biased in some manner. I'd readily submit that no human could determine the difference, but I'm not ready to pay the testing costs...