[quarantaseih]

No.

My anonymous gun ownership make me and my neighbors safer because I:

1. Can protect myself and my family.

2. Gun seeking criminals (e.g. Mexican drug cartels) that are better armed for the occasion do not know to target my house for my rifles, shotgun and handgun.

3. Burgling my very (yet cool) progressive neighbors is risky since every other house in America has a gun (I found a corner of swing state America that looks down on lawn signs). Widespread gun ownership significantly lowers the EV of committing crime.

[threeseed]

> Widespread gun ownership significantly lowers the EV of committing crime

Be useful to post evidence of this claim.

[quarantaseih]

im not stating a statistical fact. All Im saying is, all else being equal, there is an extra nevative term in the expected value equation that goes boom and has a P ~ 0.5

[albertopv]

"Widespread gun ownership significantly lowers the EV of committing crime." That's a serious claim.

USA is first by incarceration rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarcera... even with 120 arms every 100 persons https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimated_number_of_civilian_g...

South states (where AFAIK at least looking at international news, people is more willing to own a gun) have incarceration rate really high: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_incarceration_ra... Probably there's a problem with illegal immigration, that doesn't explain everything, overall is incredibly higher than other western countries.

This is quite old https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9715182/ "Conclusions: Guns kept in homes are more likely to be involved in a fatal or nonfatal accidental shooting, criminal assault, or suicide attempt than to be used to injure or kill in self-defense.

Also: https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/sites/default/files/2014-... Almost all KPI but Defensive Use are increasing since 2014. Of course it's only correlation with number of arms, much higher in USA than most other countries.

But, there's a 2013 CDC study https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/cdc-study-use-firearms-... that says * "that guns are an effective and often used crime deterrent and that most firearm incidents are not fatal" * "stolen guns account for only a small percentage of guns used by convicted criminals."

Or another one https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/rr5214a2.htm: that says "In summary, the Task Force found insufficient evidence to determine the effectiveness of any of the firearms laws reviewed for preventing violence."

Or from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concealed_carry_in_the_United_... it's not clear if concealed arm licenses had impact on crime, in any way.

Also, you must really be willing to use a gun. Uvalde police waited 45 minutes before going in, protocol says to go in as soon as possible, they were scared. They are humans afterall, even if trained.

So, it's not really clear to me that more arms means more or less safety. But I know this: in 2020 Chicago alone (where AFAIK there are what you could call "strict laws") there have been almost 3 times murders than whole Italy. Rate is about 60 times, and Chicago is not even in top 10 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b...). Something to think about.

[quarantaseih]

TL/DR but I'm sure its all very interesting

However, I didn't state a statistical fact, or assert the effect of guns on the amount of criminality.

"Widespread gun ownership significantly lowers the EV of committing crime."

EV is expected value, not expectation. That is, I didn't say that crime is less likely. I said that a person who comes into a house in the US has a not insignificant chance of leaving on a stretcher, which I consider negative value from the invader's PoV.

[albertopv]

I'm not sure. Less than half US households have at least a gun, considering 120 arms every 100 people, there's quite a concentration. Also, commonsense tell me that, if armed, criminal comes in already branding the gun, to react quickly people inside should always have a gun with them, even when inside home. I don't know if US people is used to, I would find it a terrible way of living, a way of fear.

[zorpner]

As all statistical evidence indicates, your family is far more likely to be killed by your gun than by any other. Your gun ownership endangers your family.

[quarantaseih]

Like everything in stats you have a conditional probability given that I, like most gun owners, am a responsible gun owner.

I have a safe, trigger locks, don't have a history of violence, etc. The small minority who are irresponsible gun owners get slaughtered increasing the numbers for the larger pool.

That partition function in the denominator is key!

So, no. My gun does not endanger my family.