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by bzbarsky 1458 days ago
Current TFR in China is around 1.7 according to https://www.statista.com/statistics/1033738/fertility-rate-c... it _has_ been climbing very slowly recently, but I'm not sure I would characterize that as "healthy".

"Asia" is pretty broad, but India was at 2.2 in 2020 and dropping pretty rapidly; as of earlier this spring it hit 2.0. Note that the Statista numbers are moving 5-year averages, so the "spot" number for India is lower than the number you see on that graph.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1034075/fertility-rate-w... puts "Asia" as a whole at 2.15, which is indeed "healthy", but the slope is very much down.

Africa does have higher fertility, but from what I can tell the main reason is lack of access to birth control, not "community" or "big homes"...
1 comments
jelliclesfarm 1458 days ago
China had a literal one child policy to combat exponential growth in population. India incentivised small families.

Population grows exponentially and it is also a function of time. I don’t think we should look at it in decades but rather as through lenses that capture time in centuries.

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bzbarsky 1454 days ago
> China had a literal one child policy

The operative word being "had". It hasn't had one in a while.

> Population grows exponentially

It really depends. It does if you assume TFR is a constant, but it tends to not be constant.

> I don’t think we should look at it in decades but rather as through lenses that capture time in centuries.

In the "centuries" timeframe, technological change (much reduced infant mortality, availability of contraception, career opportunities, etc) pretty much dominates the TFR situation.

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