[cupofpython]

not entirely tautological. the probability that something bad happens tomorrow if we do X today for the first time is very different than the probability that something bad happens tomorrow if we do X today GIVEN weve been doing X every day for 50 years.

It is still insufficient to say nothing bad will happen, of course

[sitkack]

Thats not the argument. The one you are making is the same one people make when they conflate weather and climate.

[cupofpython]

Conditional probability applies to many things