Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by vaishnavsm 1448 days ago
Correct me if I'm wrong, but shouldn't the criterion be that the probability of death is the same between 80-90, 90-100, and so on (for example) to say that humans stop aging after 80?

Saying that your chance of dying is 50% after 80 != saying it's the same consistently after 80?

1 comments

I think the parent poster meant "annual chance of dying after 80" as in, for any year 80+, you have a 50% chance of dying that year: it doesn't go up each year, so you don't "age" in that sense.
But this is not true. The life expectancy for an 80 year-old Caucasian American woman is over 9 years. The life expectancy a 90 year-old Caucasian American woman is less than 5 years.
Yes the coin of death remembers how lucky you were in your eighties and skews towards tails in your 90s. Still 50/50 as its a coin.
There’s only two possibilities: I’ll either win the lottery or I won’t, so it’s a 50/50 shot!
I guess I am a bayesian :)