[kaitaincps]

Wait, wait...does this whole debate hinge around the idea that you think the WIV staff are reliable, honest agents? The very idea is hilarious. They operate within an authoritarian regime that restricts their freedom of speech and makes threats against them and their families for non-compliance. It is irrational to trust anything they report as being true.

[bayesian_horse]

It's even more irrational to just assume the opposite or whatever you want to be true.

[kaitaincps]

Well, that's an interesting question. If the public health dept wants to inspect a restaurant to make sure its hygiene standards are adequate, and the restaurant goes out of its way to try to delay or block such an inspection, should we lean towards: a) The restaurant has something to hide and is therefore likely to have poor standards or b) It is irrational to hold ANY position on the hygiene standards of the restaurant, given the lack of dispositive data

?

[bayesian_horse]

I completely reject he analogy between health inspections of a restaurant and blaming a country for a pandemic using a highly speculative theory. It feels so ridiculous I don't know where to start.