[fitzrocks]

I'm commenting on investor emotions, not whatever the fed is gonna do or the value of the dollar in the future.

I'm not saying that waiting a few months will make it better like it did in 2020. My experience is that most investors don't know how to act in a rapidly changing environment. Nobody wants to look like an idiot holding a bag just a few weeks after doing a deal with a sky high valuation on a company that's hype-y and doesn't have strong fundamentals. What investors end up doing is just pausing investing to get a feel for where the market is going to end up. As a founder you don't want to pitch VCs during that "pause" period. VCs still talk to founders during this pause period, they just have little to no intention of actually deploying dollars in anything that's not completely obvious (whether they realize it or not). You see it in this thread with a few comments from VCs around deals above seed stage definitely feeling "stalled". That's exactly what I'm talking about. Founders just end up burning thru a bunch of investor leads that are no's today but could likely be yeses in 3 months time. I think we're in that pause period right now. And if a company is able to, it's probably best to wait 90 days for VCs to adjust.

So what if it gets worse? In that care investors are settled in and know the game. They'll be deploying capital, just with more scrutiny and lower valuations. Capital will still be out there – there's tons of funds and plenty of money available for seed stage. That's a better situation than the "pause" period I describe above, where founders go out pitching and investors kick tires but don't deploy capital.

Also my opinion is that the summer is the worst time to raise, regardless of macro market conditions and even in great times. Once school gets out, people start traveling, etc...the reality is that the old trope of VCs don't work over the summer is probably unfair to some in the industry, but not undeserved :)