It'll be an economic burden for sure. Yes, we'll need some more nurses-- about 25-30% more, during which time the working population grows by several percent.
Makes Japan's push for automated elderly assist technology seem prescient. I wonder how far they are getting and will get in the next 20 years. anybody have any good info?
When you factor in cost of living, they'll probably be better off than places like the US.
20 years from now America might have $8000/month starting wages (pretax) with $5800/month rent for a broom closet and thousands of miles away from family and friends. "Poor" countries may only be paying $2000/month, but with $400 rents, $5 dining, public medical services, plus family nearby to help with any troubles you have.
People really overestimate the appeal of their countries as an immigrant destination. The luster is fading pretty quickly as the world is catching up to western standards and online work helps balance the employment scales globally, plus crime rates and conflict generally leveling out.
> 20 years from now America might have $8000/month starting wages (pretax) with $5800/month rent for a broom closet
Hyperbole. You think, for a US average, that nursing comp is going to go up by 20-30%, but rents will go up by 300%?
> People really overestimate the appeal of their countries as an immigrant destination.
When the waiting list is huge, trending upwards rapidly, and many don't even bother to try because of the difficulty in clearing the list... there's pretty clearly significant demand.
That doesn't mean these trends stay true forever, but it's a fair bit of near to intermediate-term momentum.
Wages for jobs with an influx of cheap immigrant labor don't rise (they drop) and rents have been rising exponentially and inflation is accelerating. My figures were likely a bit too optimistic so I do apologize for that. Places I rented for $600/month 6 years ago are now reaching $2000/month now, so assuming the trends hold for 20 years and factoring in the drop in the value of the dollar, rents may very well more than quadruple.
Immigration has been trending downwards for a very long time in the US[1]. There are far more desirable countries these days (such as Canada), and even then, those will likely lose their appeal as well.
> Wages for jobs with an influx of cheap immigrant labor don't rise
If demand for nursing goes through the roof, wages for nurses will rise.
> factoring in the drop in the value of the dollar
If you're factoring change in the value of currency for rents, you should be considering it for in-demand jobs.
> rents may very well more than quadruple.
You're positing a scenario where the population wanting to rent falls, rents quadruple, and wages decrease markedly in real value. This seems to be self-inconsistent.
> Immigration has been trending downwards for a very long time in the US[1].
Immigrants are a larger share of the US population than any time since 1920, and much, much larger in absolute numbers. Net migration is a bit lower in these past 4-5 years than in years previous-- mostly because of restrictive Trump-era policies and decreased illegal migration from Mexico. And they fell off a cliff for the past couple of years because of, well, COVID.
But the actual queues for immigrant visas are also longer than before.
> People really overestimate the appeal of their countries as an immigrant destination. The luster is fading pretty quickly [...]
I dunno, some of the US immigration priority dates are still last century (F3 from Mexico, 15SEP97), so demand still seems pretty high. (I also think our system is pretty rediculous, making some people wait for 25 years)
75+ population is 6.8% now
In 2040, it's forecast to be 12%.
It'll be an economic burden for sure. Yes, we'll need some more nurses-- about 25-30% more, during which time the working population grows by several percent.